I think the D/U presented is the with reference to the main analog signal. As the digital power will be -10 dBc max, you can add 10 dB to that D/U ratio to get the co-channel interference amount. So if D/U is 10 dB in real terms it's 23 dB. The extra 3 dB takes account that the digital power is divided between the 2 sidebands. Each sideband having half the total digital power. So station at full digital power will be -13 dBc on each side band or in otherwords 5% of the analog power will be co-channel to the "victim" station if my rough understanding of this is correct.
The proof will be in the pudding though.
And if the pudding tastes like crap, will we all be forced to swallow it?
Out of curiosity, I started up my contour-plotting software and looked into this some more. Turns out that the D/U ratios shown in the NPR calculator are determined at the "victim" station's 60 dBu contour,
regardless of class -- and as you suspected, they're based on analog power with no adjustments made for the specified IBOC injection level.
Taking WUSL, Philadelphia as an example, the F(50,10)
analog interference contour at the edge of WRKS's 60 dBu service contour is 52 dBu. As you mentioned, assuming a nominal IBOC injection of -14, the lower sideband would be down another 3 dB; therefore, the predicted
digital interference field strength (falling in WRKS's channel) is 35 dBu. So at the 60 dBu contour, WRKS would have a D/U ratio of 25 dB which should be adequate (except in the summer when "ducting" conditions exist many evenings.)
But at the WRKS 54 dBu contour (normally-protected service of a Class B commercial station) WUSL has an interference contour of 57 dBu. Subtracting 17 dB to adjust for digital injection, this works out to 40 dBu, leaving WRKS with a D/U ratio of only 14 dB on their analog channel. The normal protection requirement is 20 dB, so there will be a significant loss of service in these areas. To the listener, it will sound as if WRKS has decreased power.
WUSL's larger issue is the interference to WAWZ in Somerset County, NJ. At the edge of WAWZ's 60 dBu contour, WUSL has a 71.2 dBu interference contour. Subtract 17 dB from that and you get 54.2 dBu, leaving WAWZ with less than 6 dB D/U
on their own channel. This will certainly result in a mutual increase in interference. At the WAWZ 54 dBu contour in Bucks County, PA the signal will be practically unusable on mobile receivers. Depending on local terrain, this may also affect WAWZ listeners in the NJ counties of Hunterdon and Mercer, well within the 60 dBu.
IBOC proponents will argue that these first-adjacent short spacings have existed for years and nobody has ever enjoyed full protection. However, ongoing improvements in receiver selectivity have really helped to resolve first-adjacent analog-to-analog spillover, particularly in car radios. Much of this effort is about to be negated, just as we've seen in the AM band.
A good slogan to keep in mind: With IBOC, first-adjacent is the new co-channel.