WNIC.com

[BrettV]

Was looking at WNIC.com (Detroit's AC station) and, well, it's just TOO EARLY. Look for yourself. wnic.com    I just hope a flip isn't in the works for after the weekend. It's October 6th!!!!!!!!

[Kevin]

> Was looking at WNIC.com (Detroit's AC station) and, well,
> it's just TOO EARLY. Look for yourself. wnic.com    I just
> hope a flip isn't in the works for after the weekend. It's
> October 6th!!!!!!!!
>

Wow. Thats interesting. Early flip? What day did they flip to Christmas last year?

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[Joseph_Gallant]

It seems that at the moment (3:40 P.M. EDT October 10th), WNIC-100.3's last ten songs played (posted on their website) are songs you'd normally expect to hear on a soft AC.

But they also have listed a "Christmas Top Ten". And their homepage will probably become the template for homepages of those Christmas Channel (a/k/a Clear Channel) stations that do go all-Christmas.

My guess: WNIC and many other stations will go all-Christmas on November 1st.

Indeed, ABC Radio's 24/7 satellite-fed all-Christmas format will begin broadcasting on November 1st. I believe last year, that format did not begin until mid-November. BTW, ABC's 24/7 satellite-fed Christmas format will be available through January 1st, although I suspect there will be only a couple of stations that will be broadcasting it after Christmas Day.

Last year, I don't think the total of all-Christmas stations hit 150 until just before Thanksgiving. This year, that number may well be reached during the first couple of days of November.

One reason you may hear a lot more Christmas music on radio this year: Retailers are fearful this will be the worst Christmas-shopping season in decades (thanks to higher energy costs, the effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, etc.). It could be the first Christmas-shopping season in many years where total retail sales, even before being adjusted for inflation, will decline.

What does this have to do with radio??

Plenty.

For most music-formatted stations, most revenue comes from retail advertisers. And if retailers have a terrible Christmas season, they may cut back on ad expenditures in 2006, which will hurt most radio stations.

Playing Christmas music on radio is an effective way of subconciously urging people to "get your Christmas shopping done!". And given that radio depends so much on retail advertising, retail advertisers have radio's ear. And if retail says to radio "Play More Christmas Music!" or "Start Your 24/7 Christmas Music Earlier This Year!", radio will listen and obey.

(As for me, I have already done most of my Christmas shopping)

Edited by Joseph_Gallant on 10/10/05 07:42 PM.

[Kevin]

> It seems that at the moment (3:40 P.M. EDT October 10th),
> WNIC-100.3's last ten songs played (posted on their website)
> are songs you'd normally expect to hear on a soft AC.

Of course, if they were Christmas now, they would lose quite a bit of listeners!
>
> But they also have listed a "Christmas Top Ten". And their
> homepage will probably become the template for homepages of
> those Christmas Channel (a/k/a Clear Channel) stations that
> do go all-Christmas.
>
> My guess: WNIC and many other stations will go all-Christmas
> on November 1st.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Christmas format. Even the early Christmas music players don't start that early, so I think once Halloween ends, there is going to be a lot of Christmas talk.
>

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[Joseph_Gallant]

I wrote:

> My guess: WNIC (Detroit) and many other stations will go
> all-Christmas on November 1st.

Radiolover 78 replied:

> It will be interesting to see what happens with the
> Christmas format. Even the early Christmas music players
> don't start that early....

Last year, a station in Salt Lake City went all-Christmas on November 1st, and a handful of others did that week.

For the reasons I mentioned earlier in this thread (and due to the fact that many, but not all, of the stations that flip to 24/7 Christmas music see ratings spikes), I think that this year, not only will the flips to all-Christmas begin November 1st, but I think there will be a lot of flips to all-Christmas on and just after that date.

Although I doubt the total number of all-Christmas stations will be much higher than last year's total of around 300, I think that most stations that do take the plunge will do so significantly earlier than last year. There could be as many as 100 all-Christmas formats on November 2nd or 3rd; and perhaps as many as 200 such stations by the end of that week.

[countrykev99]

> For most music-formatted stations, most revenue comes from
> retail advertisers. And if retailers have a terrible
> Christmas season, they may cut back on ad expenditures in
> 2006, which will hurt most radio stations.
>
> Playing Christmas music on radio is an effective way of
> subconciously urging people to "get your Christmas shopping
> done!". And given that radio depends so much on retail
> advertising, retail advertisers have radio's ear. And if
> retail says to radio "Play More Christmas Music!" or "Start
> Your 24/7 Christmas Music Earlier This Year!", radio will
> listen and obey.
>

Joseph,

Will you please get off this idea that radio stations are doing this soley for the retail ad revenue?

Going down the list of big advertisers, retail generally ranks at number 3 with automotive being at number 1. Of course, we want businesses to do well.  The idea behind creating a success story for a client is to match station objectives with a client objective.  BUT RADIO STATIONS DO NOT PLAY CHRISTMAS MUSIC FOR THE SPECIFIC REASON TO GENERATE RETAIL SALES.  

Radio stations are not a muzak service.

I've never had the sales department banging down my door to modify my format for a handful of clients.  

If you have information that I don't please share.  

They do it because it creates a gigantic surge in cume, which converts to ratings bump that most stations enjoy.  It's also a very easy sell to many different clients, NOT JUST RETAIL.  

I understand why you could draw the conclusions you do, but I'm telling you, it's not correct.

[Joseph_Gallant]

It indeed is true that automotive advertising is the top ad category for radio overall.

But I was talking about music-formatted stations. On music stations, retail is king. Lots of auto advertising gets on all-news, talk, and/or sports  stations (and in the case of high-end luxuty cars, also on commercial stations that play classical music).

I have noted that more than half of the commercials I hear on music stations come from retail (especially AC formats that cater to "soccer moms" and are most likely to go all-Christmas during the Holiday season). For talk-based formats (all-news, talk, etc.), the percentage of commercial spots that come from retailers is much lower.

Nevertheless, thanks for posting your views. They are quite interesting and add a lot to this discussion.

[calguy]

> Last year, a station in Salt Lake City went all-Christmas on
> November 1st, and a handful of others did that week.
>
> For the reasons I mentioned earlier in this thread (and due
> to the fact that many, but not all, of the stations that
> flip to 24/7 Christmas music see ratings spikes), I think
> that this year, not only will the flips to all-Christmas
> begin November 1st, but I think there will be a lot of flips
> to all-Christmas on and just after that date.
>
> There could be as many
> as 100 all-Christmas formats on November 2nd or 3rd; and
> perhaps as many as 200 such stations by the end of that
> week.
>

The Christmas format has worked well for most of the stations that do it.
The earlier they go, the better it is for their Fall Book numbers. In Salt Lake City, the number 2 AC station KOSY did well with Christmas music even with their competitor, the top rated FM100/KSFI doing it too.  My guess is that both KOSY and KSFI in SLC will go on November 1st.

[Joseph_Gallant]

The simulcast of WTTH/WDTH in Southeastern New Jersey (Atlantic City and Cape May areas) became the first to go all-Christmas, flipping on October 17th.

They will likely remain the only all-Christmas stations in the country for the next week (I'm writing this in the wee hours of Octoebr 25th), but they will probably have a lot of company starting next Tuesday (November 1st)---I wouldn't be surprised if over 100 stations take the plunge and go all-Christmas that day. And in markets where there will be multiple all-Christmas stations, I expect the "second" all-Christmas station in the market will flip within minutes of the first, to try to prevent the "first" station from getting any sort of competitive advantage.

But I still think November 1st is way too early to be broadcasting Christmas music on radio.

[calguy]

> I wouldn't be surprised if over 100 stations take the plunge and go
> all-Christmas that day. And in markets where there will be
> multiple all-Christmas stations, I expect the "second"
> all-Christmas station in the market will flip within minutes
> of the first, to try to prevent the "first" station from
> getting any sort of competitive advantage.
>
> But I still think November 1st is way too early to be
> broadcasting Christmas music on radio.

I couldn't agree with you more.  I understand the reason why stations
would take the plunge so early since it can boost those all imortant
Arbitron numbers, but it's just too early.  Sadly though, I've seen
Christmas products in stores already, and it isn't even Halloween yet.  
It's just more commercialization of a holiday that has really gotten
out of hand.  It also may prove the point in earlier entries of this
thread that retailers are pushing hard to make it a better, bigger
season...