Family Stations Will Sell 94.7FM WFME Newark

[TimeIsTight]

If 94.7 cannot become a full-market Manhattan FM signal, what major commercial operator would possibly be interested in it? Huh

If it cannot fully compete with the other big NYC FM signals, then that fact should be reflected in the sale price.  The reason a station like Pulse 87 could be profitable is that it didn't have a big mortgage, and whomever buys 94.7 will likely have a big mortgage. 

WFME was put where it is and originally licensed to serve the Newark, NJ area, which would be a major market by itself if it were not sitting next to NYC with 8-million people.  New Jersey now has almost 9-million people total, with, at least, 6-or-7-million living in North and Central Jersey within the good WFME signal from the current transmitter location.  And depending on the format, that NJ area may have a population much more attractive to some advertisers than NYC itself.

Radio stations differentiate themselves by serving different age and interest groups and it is also possible for them to differentiate by geography.  NJ-101.5 is the perfect example.  It wastes its good signal in Pennsylvania to super serve the NJ audience, and it has been successful in doing that.

It is possible that a station could super serve the 6 or 7 million NJ residents that can hear WFME well.  Wasting the signal over NYC.  By providing NJ news and NJ centric programming, if that station could draw the same market share in North Jersey that NJ-101.5 does in Ocean-Monmouth or the Trenton market it could be successful financially, and still show respectable ratings in the NY Radio Market as a whole even though NYC listers would be no more inclined to listen than Philly folks are to listen to NJ-101.5.

Other Newark stations did fine in the past by primarily serving the NJ audience, but there is always the lure of all those additional potential listeners on the other side of the Hudson.  WBGO, is the most recent Newark station to move its transmitter for that reason, but if the WFME transmitter cannot be moved (and I agree with Scott Fybush, that there is a real possibility that it can't) than there are other options for successful operation, provided the ultimate sale price reflects that probability.

Any wise bidders will certainly do their due diligence on the signal, its potential for moving to NYC, and its potential audience if it can't move.  Their conclusions will be reflected in their bids.  This is a more complicated situation than normal for that reason, and it will be interesting to see how it is worked out.

[WNTIRadio]

If it cannot fully compete with the other big NYC FM signals, then that fact should be reflected in the sale price.  The reason a station like Pulse 87 could be profitable is that it didn't have a big mortgage, and whomever buys 94.7 will likely have a big mortgage

Problem was, Pulse wasn't profitable.  That's why it isn't here anymore.

Depends on who buys it.  The privately held companies have plenty of cash on hand, and can always sell off some other properties for the purchase of WFME.

So you can't hear it down by the ESB, but it doesn't do too badly in the rest of NYC, excepting the shadow of the buildings on the East Side of Manhattan.  Still a very valuable stick.

[TimeIsTight]

So you can't hear it down by the ESB, but it doesn't do too badly in the rest of NYC, excepting the shadow of the buildings on the East Side of Manhattan.  Still a very valuable stick.

Agreed that its still a valuable stick, but from a marketing perspective even more significant than the signal's "canyons of Manhattan" problems is the fact that WFME doesn't have a competitive signal in Nassau, or nearby Suffolk counties on Long Island like most of the transmitters on the ESB do.  That leaves 2.5-million listeners that alone make up the 18-th radio market out of the sales price equation if the transmitter can't be moved.

No doubt, the license is most likely to go to one of radio ownership's Big Boys with very deep pockets, or to one of the newer startups that are backed by massively wealthy investment funds.  For them, coming up with the money won't be a problem, but worry about overpaying for the property might.

ESPN has been rumored to be in the hunt for a NYC FM for years, and yet didn't buy 96.3 a couple of years back, and was apparently outbid for 101.9 by startup Merlin last year.  Both of those sales involved multiple stations in complicated deals.  ESPN probably didn't also want two FMs in Chicago with WQCD, and it didn't have a lower power NYC FM to to swap and avoid a big PR problem by allowing classical music WQXR to move up the dial.  But it has missed the boat a couple of times, and there aren't that many NYC FMs likely to be sold in the coming years, so since this will be a long-term investment, ESPN may make a special effort to catch a boat this time.  Whether that boat is WFME, or WBLS, remains to be seen.  If ESPN does get one, The FAN will likely be on FM too just to keep the competition in sports talk radio, and that will make one less music format less competitive.

[Nick]

So you can't hear it down by the ESB, but it doesn't do too badly in the rest of NYC, excepting the shadow of the buildings on the East Side of Manhattan.  Still a very valuable stick.

Agreed that its still a valuable stick, but from a marketing perspective even more significant than the signal's "canyons of Manhattan" problems is the fact that WFME doesn't have a competitive signal in Nassau, or nearby Suffolk counties on Long Island like most of the transmitters on the ESB do.  That leaves 2.5-million listeners that alone make up the 18-th radio market out of the sales price equation if the transmitter can't be moved.

No doubt, the license is most likely to go to one of radio ownership's Big Boys with very deep pockets, or to one of the newer startups that are backed by massively wealthy investment funds.  For them, coming up with the money won't be a problem, but worry about overpaying for the property might.

ESPN has been rumored to be in the hunt for a NYC FM for years, and yet didn't buy 96.3 a couple of years back, and was apparently outbid for 101.9 by startup Merlin last year.  Both of those sales involved multiple stations in complicated deals.  ESPN probably didn't also want two FMs in Chicago with WQCD, and it didn't have a lower power NYC FM to to swap and avoid a big PR problem by allowing classical music WQXR to move up the dial.  But it has missed the boat a couple of times, and there aren't that many NYC FMs likely to be sold in the coming years, so since this will be a long-term investment, ESPN may make a special effort to catch a boat this time.  Whether that boat is WFME, or WBLS, remains to be seen.  If ESPN does get one, The FAN will likely be on FM too just to keep the competition in sports talk radio, and that will make one less music format less competitive.

If that means 92.3 Now will flip to a simulcast of WFAN, I would rather have Harold Camping continue to tell us when the world will end on 94.7.

[Gregg]

Here's an interesting question... Suppose Family Radio were to sell 94.7 to Disney/ESPN for millions of dollars but also want 1050 thrown in the deal?

Would you do that?  Right now, I think it would be logical for ESPN to simulcast on 1050 and 94.7 if Disney could buy the signal.  That way places that might not get 94.7, such as parts of Long Island and Connecticut, might still get 1050.

I'm sure Family Radio still wants to keep a voice in NYC.  When they sold FM stations in San Francisco and San Diego, they got AM stations so they could still serve that audience.

Others have speculated that if ESPN moved to FM, Disney would put ESPN Deportes on 1050.  But Deportes is really a format aimed at Mexican-Americans with lots of coverage of Mexican soccer leagues.  That's of no interest to most Spanish-speaking New Yorkers who trace their backgrounds to Puerto Rico, Cuba and the Dominican Republic.  And it leaves Family Radio, getting around a one-share now on FM, with no AM alternative.

So if Disney were faced with the choice, is it better to be on a limited FM signal or on AM, a band that has trouble with younger sports fans?


Gregg
nh153@mail.com

[TimeIsTight]

Suppose Family Radio were to sell 94.7 to Disney/ESPN for millions of dollars but also want 1050 thrown in the deal?

While that is a "possibility" it is not a likely one, since Family Radio is apparently deep in debt and in desperate need of cash to pay its bills.

Thanks to Harold Camping's bad biblical math, Family Radio is reported to be in $100-million debt.  It sold the station in the DC market for $8.5-million, and its station in the Philly market for $22.5-million.  That means it needs another $69-million from the WFME sale just to pay the existing debt. 

Family Radio is going to want to take every dime it can in cash, just so it doesn't have to sell anything else, or go bankrupt.  Under other circumstances the FM for AM plus cash deal would make a lot of sense.  But in this kind of situation cash is king. 

[Nick]

Isn't it awesome that Family Radio wasted all that money to tell us the world is ending on May 21, knowing that they would be screwed when the world didn't end. I doubt it'll get $69 million from WFME. It's in Newark, it is infeasible to move it to Empire, and 107.5 might soon be for sale, along with 94.5 PST.

Speaking of that, maybe someone could buy 94.7 and 94.5 together and serve all of NJ with it (perhaps buying WIBG 94.3 too for the AC/Cape May area). Perhaps Townsquare can do that, and flip 101.5's format. "New Jersey 94"

[badjef]

Isn't it awesome that Family Radio wasted all that money to tell us the world is ending on May 21, knowing that they would be screwed when the world didn't end. I doubt it'll get $69 million from WFME. It's in Newark, it is infeasible to move it to Empire, and 107.5 might soon be for sale, along with 94.5 PST.

Speaking of that, maybe someone could buy 94.7 and 94.5 together and serve all of NJ with it (perhaps buying WIBG 94.3 too for the AC/Cape May area). Perhaps Townsquare can do that, and flip 101.5's format. "New Jersey 94"

Don't forget to include WJLK 94.3 in that deal.

Get the point?

Jeff in Sa-ra-so-ta!

[XCountry285]

I sure hope that doesn't happen. I thought that 101.5 was also Rock mixed in with it or it was. I could be wrong. Anyway. I hope 94.7 is at least Country. 107.5 becomes Alternative. As for 101.9 maybe they can become sports, I hope that if that does happen they carry Yankee games.

[WNTIRadio]

That's the best idea I've heard of so far... 94.5/94.7 covering most of the state with a NJ based format.  Of course, can it bill well?  NJ-101.5 bills well by itself, but can the boost from an almost "full state" signal compensate for the purchase price?  The populations of Bergen, Passaic and Union counties alone add up to roughly 2 million people, which would be market 23-ish if it weren't in the shadow of NYC.  The market is there for a station to cater to their issues.   We made money serving Bergen county with news/traffic and music at Jukebox Radio, and that was with a 35 watt translator. 

It all remains to be seen.... right now, a sale hasn't been announced.  Or a price, or potential buyers.