Mike Huckabee/Cumulus

[GeorgeKramer]

Will the new weekdays noon to 3pm talk show eventually air in either Buffalo or Rochester?

[SirRoxalot]

Just what Cumulus station in Buffalo would be likely to carry that, George?

[Bob1370]

In tthe Rochester market it could be an attractive option for WYSL especially if it's offered on a barter basis with enough local avails. Same could apply in Buffalo to WBEN. Here's the thing...Rush still has a sizable following, but there's no growth to speak of--he's still drawing the same folks born between 1930 and 1960 that he has had from the very beginning, and not much newer blood. He's charging what he has said himself are "confiscatory" carriage fees to his stations. Huckabee, on the other hand, has name recognition, high energy, and likability on his side, he's a known quantity from his TV show, and because he'll probably be available on a barter basis, there's the chance that he can be more profitable on day one even if the numbers ease a little (which they may not).

But I think that's even more of a consideration for Cumulus stations across the country like WABC, WLS, WJR or WMAL in some of the top 10 markets. They'll instantly become more profitable by making the switch and they could not only hold but even build their early afternoon audience with something new. And there's no obvious place for Rush to go in any of these markets, especially not with the carriage fees he expects to collect.

This could be a significant challenge to Limbaugh's position in some markets, either forcing him to cut his rates or go to barter.

[JustPastBuffalo]

The question is, who's going to listen to Huck? The right wingers want to be served raw meat daily. The upside: Mike Huckabee is a known, bonafide commodity in conservative circles. He's been on the national stage, so moderates and progressives know him. But Rush is better known. In head-to-head comptetition, Rush wins. What may happen in three two five years if Huck develops and Rush checks out is not and issue. As George Allen once said, "the future is now."

As for stations trading in Rush for Huck. I think they'd rather pay "confiscatory" rights fees for a known commodity than roll the dice on a bartered show with a lesser talent. Let's put it this way, I don't see WBEN dropping Rush for Huckabee. And WABC isn't going to drop Rush because there are indeed other stations in Market #1 that would snatch him up. Huck, unlike Hannity, Rush or Savge (Weiner) isn't the kind of guy who says things just to get noticed.  His show might fit well on rimshot talkers and secondary talk stations in large or major markets. . 

A critical component will be the willingness of advertisers to "buy in" to the show. Local advertisers might like to buy in to a show that's not as brusque as Rush. Nationals might look at him more favorably. Still, it seems to be another talk show that will appeal primarily to Men, 50+. If Huck doesn't deliver an audience in one year (maybe even less in PPM markets), he may become yet another syndicated national show that tried to take on Limbaugh and failed.  More will be told when we find out which Cumulus talk stations and markets opt to take Huckabee's show.

From a programmer's perspective, the only way to air this show is in real time, live. There needs to be a strong show before and after Huckabee's slot. If local talkers run mish-mash of This Old Plumber or Colon Blow Deluxe before Huck's show, all bets are off.

A smart PD running a rimshot or secondary against Rush on the Big Talker, would take Huckabee live, build around him, heavily promote him and supported his show with a strong local news-(traffic)-weather presence. As with any syndicated talk show, if it runs on life support, it'll do about as well as Ed Schultz. Fail. Abort. Retry.

[Paul_Warren]

There's an interesting chess-game facet to this. If all the Cumulus stations which now carry Rush (don't know that number) dropped him for Huckabee, could it make a significant financial impact on revenues for Premier/Clear Channel, which just extended its contract with Rush?

It's not exactly the "in the public interest" approach, but with CC headed for what looks like a financial bridge abutment with notes due in 2014, could this consideration be part of the game?

Rim-shots picking up Rush might never be able to capitalize on the opportunity if they couldn't afford the media buys needed to make the audience aware of Rush's new home.

[jas2525]

I am actually surprised so many here are giving this absurd theory any consideration.

Huckabee is a completely UNPROVEN radio entity. In what universe would any station, no matter the carriage fee, drop Limbaugh for Huckabee? I mean, seriously.

I don't have to hear even one second of his show to know he's going to be just another dime-a-dozen conservaclone radio echo chamber, joining the long list of such on the junkpile before long.

And did somebody say "high energy"? LOL.

[Troublemaan]

Those crazy Dickeys (don't work for 'em without Howard Stern's lawyer negotiating your contract) really aren't much for "raw meat" conservative radio. Prior to takeover of Citadel, name one Cumulus news-talker in a market with more than one talk station where they win. Last week's interview of Meryl Streep on Huckabee's FNC show points to where this may be going.

[Element9]

Typical Cumulus.  Looks good on paper and gets some attention from the media homing pigeons like us and on-line publications like R-I.  Using Huckabee as leverage against Rush in a contractual or on-air sense is suspect.

[SirRoxalot]

I can't believe that George lured us into this absurd discussion.

[Paul_Warren]

I can't believe that George lured us into this absurd discussion.

There's a first time for everything!