Buffalo Numbers, Winter '12

[Bob1370]

We just found out the topline 12+ numbers for all the commercial stations in the Winter '12 Arbitrons for Buffalo and Rochester. In a nutshell...

In Buffalo, really not much has changed since the fall. WYRK still leads. WBEN has pulled out of its tie with WBLK and reclaimed second place for itself, while WBLK stays third, classic hits WHTT moves into fourth and 97 Rock falls into a tie for fifth with Kiss 98.5 (giving us perhaps an advance look at where 97 Rock will stay now that the Bills have moved to WGR). The 7 through 10 spots in the rankings belong to Star 102, WJYE, WGR-AM and the Edge 103.3 in that order, all falling in the 4s sharewise. WBUF falls to 11th with just over a 3 share, and WHLD's adult standards take 12th as the only other station in the market with better than a 1 share. Of course the demos behind each of those raw AQH shares mean a lot in money terms and we can only speculate on those. No surprises in the top echelons, although I'd be willing to predict that 97 Rock has pretty much found a permanent lower level over the long haul, and WGR-AM will be somewhat stronger even in the warmer months if two things happen--they can find a way to keep the conversation about the Bills interesting through spring OTAs and draft season, and the Sabres can make the playoffs and make a bit of a run next year. CKEY, WXRL, WDCX, WECK, WJJL, WUFO and WLVL all disappeared between this book and the previous Fall '11 book, probably not because their audience disappeared but because they didn't buy the Arbitron book this time around.

Anyone have thoughts on what the numbers mean? (I'll discuss Rochester in a separate post.)

[SirRoxalot]

97 Rock seems to always have an odious Winter book. If you look at the year-to-year, they actually did better than last Winter, when they were also beaten by WHTT. Maybe if Pink Floyd had a Christmas album...

Once the draft is over, WGR's got nothing to talk about until August. The only item of interest will be to see if Schopp suddenly develops a taste for football in general, and the Bills in particular.

[Element9]

What?  How'd this thread slip under the radar?  Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop drinking.   Deciphering Persons 12+ reminds me of the story about two blindfolded guys describing an elephant using only their hands.  Feels like a giraffe.  Could be it's a hippopotamus.  Maybe it's a zebra.  One thing's certain, WYRK kicks it once again.  Everything else is pure speculation.  So let me speculate.  Could it be WBEN on FM is actually clicking?  97 Rock has had soft Winter books in the past and come storming back in the Spring.  Those WHTT ratings look good.  How much of it is 50+?  In Buffalo, 50+ is a good sell.  WGR will miss the Sabres because they tanked, but the station will get some fuel for the Spring book with the Bills draft, the Bills request for money to improve the stadium and the death of Junior Seau.  Arbitron's new de-listing policy means we can't see the ratings for Canadian stations and locals like WDCX, WJJL, WXRL, WLVL and WECK.  Guess we won't be able to discuss the Breeze getting a 5 share.       

[Bob1370]

"Could it be WBEN on FM is actually clicking?"

Doubt it, because the combined share of the two signals is pretty much the same as WBEN-AM alone was getting in the Buffalo book in the recent past.

One thing that would be interesting to see, is if WBEN's FM simulcast is hurting WHAM in the Rochester book, where it arguably has better coverage than in Buffalo itself. It looked like it was hurting WHAM by a fraction of a share point in the summer and fall of 2011, before Entercom started buying only Buffalo-market numbers for its Buffalo cluster this winter and got even its own out-of-market stations dropped below the line in Rochester. WHAM fell too far in the winter book to be explained just by competition from 107.7 this time around--this looked like WHAM's own cost-driven programming changes hurt it in its home market.   

[John C]

"Could it be WBEN on FM is actually clicking?"

Doubt it, because the combined share of the two signals is pretty much the same as WBEN-AM alone was getting in the Buffalo book in the recent past.

One thing that would be interesting to see, is if WBEN's FM simulcast is hurting WHAM in the Rochester book, where it arguably has better coverage than in Buffalo itself. It looked like it was hurting WHAM by a fraction of a share point in the summer and fall of 2011, before Entercom started buying only Buffalo-market numbers for its Buffalo cluster this winter and got even its own out-of-market stations dropped below the line in Rochester. WHAM fell too far in the winter book to be explained just by competition from 107.7 this time around--this looked like WHAM's own cost-driven programming changes hurt it in its home market.   

"tick, tick, tick..."  waiting for the A to tell you while you're wrong.