My prediction for Pensacola Radio

[cceng]

I figured if anyone would have gotten "modded" in this thread, it would have been my post....maybe the mod hit the wrong button.....keeping a low profile....need to save my strength for my Bay High School Class of '67 45th class reunion this weekend...

cceng

[Zach]

I just wish they'd bring Arnetta the Moodsetta back in to do the flip...Even if it never flips.

no more calls please...we have a winner!  "I quit this b----!"

Even better: “I flip this b----!” 

[amfmxm]

Observatons from the Ivory Tower...

Charlie's frustration with Rob is understandable, though our Navarre pal is always good for keeping an ear on things. And, as a non-radio pro (that's correct, Rob, isn't it?) he brings the perspective of the average listener to the table--something often missing when it's just us radioheads talking.

BLX is a monster--a damn money-machine--and will be with us for many, many years. Hell, even Cumulus hasn't been able to screw them up. A great radio station.

100.7 has flipped formats about every two years on-average over the past 20 years, and "Journey" apparently had no traction and was generating no cash flow--so the first task for WCOA-FM will be helping listeners find the SOB. It hasn't been on anyone's pre-set buttons for a long time--maybe since "Arrow" days, a dozen years ago.

But kudos to Cumulus for being the first to put a spoken-word format on one of the full Class C rigs serving the real (don't tell Arbitron) marketplace: Mobile-Pensacola.

Sure, the programming on it right now is shitty--all second-choice stuff--but that will-or-can change over time.

And second-choice programming on a clearly superior signal (100.7) is quite capable of beating the living hell out of first-choice programming on clearly inferior signals: 710 and 1370. When Huckabee starts clobbering Rush, there will be all sorts of movement happening. When 100.7 destroys 1370, there will be much consternation inside the Cumulus/Pensacola building, but it will sort itself out... and the programming worth saving will eventually shift to the FM. Yes, CC is very likely to respond in-kind, most likely picking an equivalent FM stick to pair with 710 and blunt WCOA's attack. I'd bet on The Rocket, assuming that TK can soak-up the rock dollars by itself, if they're not already doing so.

HMN? What happened in the Mobile Arbitron? Wasn't it released the other day? I'll have to look. But, generally, I have a lot of faith in Clear Channel's ability to program & promote CHR. And while 107.3's signal may not be quite on-par with the quasi-reincarnation of ABB (what are the calls?), the difference may not be perceptible to the typical CHR listener.

All of which is still fun to watch... from afar.

[R.D.P.]

Now for more observations from an outsider,

I still look for The Head of the Republican Party (Rush) to eventually move to the FM side in the P-Cola area.  The timing is just right for someone to do it.  WCOA FM may be the ones to carry it out, providing CC has no issues with it.

WCOA FM might do very well, once people learn about them and the ad money starts to flow in.  I know that it's mostly second to third tiered talkers on here but I have a great feeling this presentation will work out.  A huge signal will work to their advantage.  Give this new talker some time and trust me they will have success.  So much of it, they will have to move much of their AM programs over to the FM side.  When that happens, I can see their AM station ditching talk and going for some type of Oldies/Classic Hits presentation and snagging them a FM translator to fill in the gaps where the AM doesn't come in too well between dark and dawn. 

To the last poster, you sir are spot on about 100.7 FM.  Wanted to add my own thoughts to this discussion.  I may not live in P-Cola but I'm rooting for this new station to have success and do very well.  I can see this station becoming a top biller for Panhandle/Mobile Bay area of the world, once they get everything established. 

And yes this outsider still believes that WBLX will always be around.  Urban does very well in many places around these parts.  Mobile/P-Cola is included too. 

R.D.P. <><

[poledo]

A little shift it topic with an equation for the experts to offer their thoughts on... those of you like the Redneck, Tibbs, and cceng... those with access to real numbers. 

Which Cumulus FM in Fort Walton brings in the least revenue?  Could Cumulus FWB justify dropping AC, Country, CHR, or Rock and handing that format over to the competition or are those four stations golden eggs that should not be touched?

In your mind's eye, could you, the experts, see Cumulus shuffling around the formats and signals in Fort Walton to put FM Talk on 93.3, 96.5, or 99.5?  Unless Clear Channel is already working on a FM talk project in Mobile/Pensacola, Cumulus could come in from the east with a second talker anchored by El Rushbo.  With the ability to pull the top talk radio shows from WCOA-AM and WFTW-AM, this would afford Cumulus the chance to hit the #1 spot on the FWB and Pensacola ratings with a FWB/Pensacola FM Talker.

And even if Clear Channel is working to put on a FM talk station in Mobile/Pensacola, a Cumulus FM talker from Fort Walton could still work out and the worst case scenario would see WCOA-FM 100.7 going Sports Talk with Alabama or Auburn sports (using the Tide or AU logo on 100.7 bumper stickers would attract a whole lot of attention.  Of course, Clear Channel's FM Talk approach for Mobile/Pensacola could easily be Sports Talk with Rush Limbaugh. 

[poledo]

amfmxm, not going to quote your message, it's too long... but... in the past you've talked about WMEZ as if you knew quite a bit about the station.  If/when Clear Channel moves forward with Talking on 96.1, could you see Pamal changing WMEZ's format to Classic Rock, Classic Hits, or the wet dream format AAA?

Also, you seem high on 107.3.  Why do you think dual Mobile/Pensacola market needs two Top 40 stations?  With Pensacola getting a third CHR from Z96.5 in Fort Walton and Mobile having several FM signals available that do not cover the Pensacola market... Is it that hard to imagine the dual Mobile-Pensacola market with only one Top-40/CHR with Pensacola having a second choice in Z96.5 and Mobile having a new/local (live/local!) second choice, perhaps 106.5 after the major news/talk programing has been poached by Cumulus and Clear Channel?

I gotta keep a low profile ya know. Just because I'm not paranoid, doesn't mean the man isn't watching me.  Don't tell anyone where I am.

[Zach]

When Huckabee starts clobbering Rush, there will be all sorts of movement happening. When 100.7 destroys 1370, there will be much consternation inside the Cumulus/Pensacola building, but it will sort itself out... and the programming worth saving will eventually shift to the FM. Yes, CC is very likely to respond in-kind, most likely picking an equivalent FM stick to pair with 710 and blunt WCOA's attack. I'd bet on The Rocket, assuming that TK can soak-up the rock dollars by itself, if they're not already doing so.

If CC was smart (ain't that a big IF!) they'd hop-to on getting their lineup on FM.  It seems like the current trend is migrating talk to FM because it's cheaper than music, so the pressure is on for them to decide if they can continue to make a run with a paltry 1,000 watt AM station up against their own FM, WCOA, 1480 (when it's operational) and 106.5.

My own speculation about WNTM snagging a translator is really, really starting to sound like "too little, too late".

I just don't see TK 101 going anywhere.  IIRC it does well in Pensacola and they don't really have a strong secondary rocker like they do with FWB's CHR at 96.5.  But classic rock?  It would be a huge upset, but I could see it being shuffled off to the translator, if it ever comes on, and talk going on 96.1. 

But like Rob and RDP I am but a nobody, a listener.  My opinions are worthless, but it's so much fun to speculate.

[Zach]

HMN? What happened in the Mobile Arbitron? Wasn't it released the other day? I'll have to look. But, generally, I have a lot of faith in Clear Channel's ability to program & promote CHR. And while 107.3's signal may not be quite on-par with the quasi-reincarnation of ABB (what are the calls?), the difference may not be perceptible to the typical CHR listener.

The Winter 11 ratings are posted but only for subscribers, which CC is… but there's no listing for HMN.  The last time it posted was fall, when it was a distant second to WABB.

In Pensacola, HMN posted a 3.0 but WABD wasn't listed, so it's impossible to say, but that 3.0 is almost double from fall, so they are definitely gaining traction there.  In the fall they were behind WABB and Z 96.  I think if WABB had continued they honest to God would have bypassed them last quarter.

[Dr voicetrack]

Of course HMN was going to gain in the fall. JLQ dumped the format. Hence, they gain share. Doesn't mean they were gaining traction. Just a gift.

[musiconradio.com]

Why do you think dual Mobile/Pensacola market needs two Top 40 stations?  With Pensacola getting a third CHR from Z96.5 in Fort Walton and Mobile having several FM signals available that do not cover the Pensacola market

Pensacola could care less about 96.5. It is a Fort Walton Station. WABD is sold as a Mobile station, and Pensacola is secondary. HMN is Pensacola and so on...

My own speculation about WNTM snagging a translator is really, really starting to sound like "too little, too late".

WNTM covers the market okay. The ratings are decent. A translator won't make that much difference to the bottom line. With a tall tower absent in the metro area, coverage would be poor. Baldwin county doesn't figure in the equation.

And even if Clear Channel is working to put on a FM talk station in Mobile/Pensacola

Most of the CC stations are healthy ratings and revenue wise. WJLQ was not. Hence, the reason for the change. It's not about who can jump on the News talk bandwagon first.

The battle for CHR was different. You had had a ratings winner legend leaving the market. It made sense to fill the void with two stations. Because of the geographic difference of both markets. Both will probably do okay.