My prediction for Pensacola Radio

[amfmxm]

Hmmm. Where to start?

Yes, in my miss-spent youth (or at least in younger days) I had worked at both 107.3 and 94.1, both of which were under prior ownership groups. But I've kinda kept my eye on both over the years.

In 107.3's case, I'm aware of CC's excellent track-record in CHR in many other markets and know that within the company they've got the brains and expertise to do this format extremely well. To refresh everyone's memory, they didn't wait for WABB or i100.7 to crash before jumping into CHR--they've bee in it about a year now and made their jump in Pensacola ratings before WABB got religion (yes, Cumulus handed them 100.7's audience)--but that gives them a huge head-start over 104.1. Doesn't mean 'ABD won't catch them, but CC has the early lead. BTW, HMN's non-listing in Mobile no doubt reflects the stick's continued listing as a Pensacola subscriber, rather than both cities--though as part of the Mobile-based Clear Channel cluster, everyone at CC has access to both reports. Stupid.

Radio companies are very reluctant to give up an established AC position for anything else. AC is the most sellable radio format. It attracts the most valuable demo: Women 25-54/18-49/35-64 (depending on the slant), the SHOPPERS among us... the people who actually voluntarily go to malls and grocery stores and buy shit. Guys don't. The longtime saying about rockers--and now news-talkers--guy formats--is that once you get past beers, bars, strip clubs, pickups and auto parts, nobody wants to buy spots on those stations. CHR is "too young," Urban is "too ethnic," Country is too "downscale," Oldies/Classic Hits/Classic Rock is too "old"--but AC is Just Right. I love AAA, but it's a niche format--too tiny. Could WMEZ flip to something else, someday? Sure, but it will likely require somebody too dumb to know better...

[amfmxm]

Poledo, the answer really is "no"--y'all don't necessarily NEED two CHRs in Mobile-Pensacola. But (kinda going back to what I mentioned above about Triple-A) there are really only a handful of radio formats that are capable of being big money-makers, and CHR is one of them. It's why you've got a 2 or 3 Country stations, 2 or 3 AC stations, and 2 or 3 variations of rock in almost evey large market. Some formats, like Urban or Hispanic, depend on having a sizeable ethnic population, and Country doesn't work everywhere--but in most U.S. markets you'll find CHR, AC, Rock...

Z96.5 just doesn't have the signal to compete in Pensacola, unless a nuclear bomb levels Baldwin County and takes out all the big FM sticks.

About CC and Premiere and Cumulus. Real interesting dynamic. Yeah, Clear Channel owns Premiere, but they've rarely jumped in to yank product like Rush away from a competitor--though they have coincidentally ended up with Rushbo upon expiration of cross-town contracts. It was never an issue in Pensacola, since CC has never had an AM stick to do talk on, anyway--while Limbaugh's presence (+ other stuff) on WNTM has prevented anyone like Cumulus from intruding on 710's Mobile turf. This move by WCOA-FM might influence Clear Channel to call in their chips on Rush, et al, and give 100.7 a slap-down--though it might take awhile for the current contracts to expire.

It isn't all that simple, though, since Cumulus represents a big client for Premiere/Clear Channel in other (and much larger) markets. They make a lot of money off Cumulus. Gotta be careful not to cut off one's nose to spite one's face!

[poledo]

Okay, no surprises here... even though WMEZ is a wasted signal in my book I never really thought it would move very far away from it's current format.  The only reason I got that idea was thinking back to CC flipping Atlanta's "The Peach" 94.9 from AC to Country.  That was a major shocker and I wondered if it might be setting a president for things to come.
I am aware of CC's strength with CHR, but I didn't think it was a top money format... maybe I should have kept taking broadcasting classes in college so I could become a broke DJ living in an apartment with 3 roommates.

I'm also aware of 107.3 weak signal.  Music just doesn't seem right for 107.3 and the speculation of CHR moving to 96.1 has not happened... leading me to believe CC was more than happy with Classic Rock's performance in both Mobile and Pensacola.  I was not thinking about Premiere having a significant number of Cumulus stations carrying Rush.  Just guessing I thought Cumulus would be a small customer of Premiere for talk programming.  It's not unusual for me to be wrong.   Therefore my idea of Clear Channel firing back at Cumulus with the strongest ammo available (96.1) is crushed.  Thank god, The Rocket is the only Mobile radio station that I listen to over here in Florida.

There is not really an answer here.  Does Clear Channel abandon CHR and go with WNTM-FM 107.3 in mono to boost the signal?  Does CC consider killing off or possibly trading TK101 to Pamal for 102.7 or ADX for 98.7 in order to start a new FM talk station?  Or, what appears most likely to me now, does nothing change at all until the Pensacola Country battle has a winner?

The question you didn't address, amfmxm, and a highly unlikely scenario in my mind... but I gues anything's possible.  Would Cumulus ever consider striking twice and flipping WKSM 99 Rock out of Fort Walton to News Talk with combined programing from WFTW-AM and WCOA-AM, thus creating a Fort Walton/Pensacola News Talk station, complete with Rush, to fill the gap between Clear Channel's WFLF in Panama City and WBUV in Biloxi?

[Zach]

I was under the impression that Premiere could yank any of their hosts off a competitior's station if they wanted to move it to a CC station.  Didn't it happen in Raleigh or Charlotte or Boston?  I'm pretty sure it happened in Boston and they put Limbaugh on an AM converted to "Rush Radio", before the contract was up with whoever had been carrying him.

One thing remains: I'm thoroughly convinced that news and/or sports talk to FM is a national trend because it's a cost-saver over music formats.  Maybe that clouds my judgement a little locally but the dominoes have fallen in other markets.  Would it pay more to put talk on 107.3 versus being the de facto CHR for Pensacola?  That's the million dollar question.

Then there's still that translator.  It's a nice wild card.  CC has ESPN radio on 107.3's HD-2.  That could be competition for the piddly signal on 105.5 which doesn't reach south Baldwin or WeMo (West Mobile as I've heard it called today).

[amfmxm]

Poledo, your FWB-Pensacola idea is certainly a possibility, but--as always--it also depends on how much cash flow WKSM is currently generating as a rocker.

And that leads into the larger question about the viability of news-talk as a sellable radio format. Outside the largest markets, conventional talk (the customary convervative Rush-Hannity-Beck variety or the almost non-existant liberal Miller-Schultz-Hartmann variety) is not an easy sell. Local direct advertisers tend to avoid controversy--they're just trying to sell stuff.

Washington, DC's WTOP (along with WCBS & WINS/NYC, WBBM-AM/Chicago, et al) jumped into the limelight by emerging as America's top-billing station, but that format is "ALL-NEWS", a completely different animal than News-Talk, which is mostly talk. Nobody in Pensacola-Mobile is even thinking about All-News. Just more plug-n-play network talk shit. Yawn. 

But, wait! See this morning's news section of Radio-Info--and/or Tom Taylor's column. Apparently, Cumulus is talking to Pamal about buying WXBM and WMEZ. Hmmmm. Yes, they would have to spin-off some properties in Pcola or Mobile in order to get under the cap, but...

[poledo]

Cumulus buying Pamal.  Well, isn't that interesting.  What's the cap, 5 stations per market with a max of 4FMs and 2AMs or something like that?  Cumulus Pensacola has 100.7. 106.1, and 1370.  Cumulus Mobile has 92.9, 98.3, 104.1, 660, and 900.  Two separate markets with a common tower farm.  98.3 and 106.1 are the only single market FM stations.  The only AM that is probably worth keeping is WGOK 900.  I wonder how that would play out?  Would Dickey just buy the two Pamal stations in his own name like he's done with the AM's in Atlanta?  Cumulus doesn't have any AC or Country in Mobile or Pensacola.  No need to flip formats on 94.1 or 102.7.  Unless this results in 98.3 and/or 106.1 getting sold off I don't see any changes with this deal.  Cumulus could also change the COL of 94.1 to Foley or Gulf Shores to "move" it to the Mobile market if need be, don't see why they would need to though.

Seems like this would give Cumulus all the same formats Clear Channel has... The only exception would be CC's 2 Rockers and Cumulus' 2 Urban's.  The only other 100kw owner would be local ADX with Cat Country.  I guess Clear Channel would have to make a bid for that station to stay on par with Cumulus.

Back to WKSM, it's got to be an expensive station for Cumulus.  It has live/local DJ's all day, probably the only station in FWB with that payroll.  I have, however, heard WKSM DJ's voice tracking on Gulf 104 in Tallahassee, don't know how much of that goes on in FWB.  When you mention that rockers and live air staff are expensive, it seems like killing WKSM for satellite fed talk, the same shows they already carry on WFTW-AM and WCOA-AM may be more profitable.  I don't know how good the 100.7 signal is down in FWB, they do include Fort Walton in the 100.7 station ID.

[amfmxm]

When bullshit is repeated often enough (see PBS' "Frontline" show regarding CSI myths) it becomes accepted as fact--a "truism." I'm referring to the notion that staffing a rocker like WKSM with three or four local jocks is "expensive." At what? $25,000 a year and all the traded beer you can drink? Shit. As the lead rocker in FWB, the station likely generates (wild guess) $1 million in sales and spins off a half-million in operating profit (hard to isolate a single-station P&L from a cluster). I'm guessing the Fort Walton Cumulus cluster at $4 million-to-$5 million top-line and 50% BCF--broadcast cash flow.

Regardless of what you may hear or read, radio remains an obscenely profitable business. And there are so many unemployed highly-talented jocks on the loose that simple supply and demand has driven air-talent salaries down to nothing.

[Mario500]

^I'm still amazed folks would use rude language on the Internet (would they use such language in front of friends and family?). Such language would repel folks from an interesting discussion.

[amfmxm]

^I'm still amazed folks would use rude language on the Internet (would they use such language in front of friends and family?). Such language would repel folks from an interesting discussion.

My apologies. But with all of our children well into adulthood--and a generally non-prudish extended family--the answer for me would be "Yes." Nonetheless, I'll try to be more sensitive in future postings.

amfmxm/RNR

[poledo]

When bullshit is repeated often enough (see PBS' "Frontline" show regarding CSI myths) it becomes accepted as fact--a "truism." I'm referring to the notion that staffing a rocker like WKSM with three or four local jocks is "expensive." At what? $25,000 a year and all the traded beer you can drink? Shit. As the lead rocker in FWB, the station likely generates (wild guess) $1 million in sales and spins off a half-million in operating profit (hard to isolate a single-station P&L from a cluster). I'm guessing the Fort Walton Cumulus cluster at $4 million-to-$5 million top-line and 50% BCF--broadcast cash flow.

Regardless of what you may hear or read, radio remains an obscenely profitable business. And there are so many unemployed highly-talented jocks on the loose that simple supply and demand has driven air-talent salaries down to nothing.

Obscenely profitable for what percentage of people who work in it?

I also qualified my statement that 99Rock must be Cumulus' most expensive station in FWB by adding that I've heard FWB jocks on at least one other Cumulus rocker.  I was trying to say biggest payroll, not least profitable.  Wouldn't the typical Rock Jock do one live and voice track one or two more shows a day?  You have to have those jocks VTing from somewhere, I guess FWB is nice enough and cheap enough to be a good place to work.


Also, $25k a year?  I could live off that but I'd never be able to retire.  When one of my college teachers told me I might be able to make $25k a year in Atlanta (back in the early '90s) I realized that I already made more than $25k a year going to college.  I think she told me 1-2% of non-sales people in radio made decent money.  If I was going to waste my time in college I wanted to make north of $100k a year.  Damn I should have gone to Auburn.  I'd be a very rich man right now.

And if you think amfm's language is bad, you should have heard me having a casual conversation with a deputy this morning.